Every September, PARCEL Forum brings shippers, carriers, and technology providers together to take stock of where parcel is headed. This year’s event, held September 14–16 at the Gaylord Palms in Orlando, arrived at a moment of steady change. Carrier networks are fragmenting, 2027 rate increases are on the horizon, and AI has moved from a curiosity to a budget line in operations planning.
For shippers, these shifts add up to more options and more complexity at the same time. The decisions made in the next few months, from carrier mix to contract terms, will shape parcel costs well into 2027.
The Sifted team split up across more than 20 sessions, and Mark Kolde, our VP of Logistics Intelligence, presented “Taking Back Control of Parcel Spend: Forecasting Costs, Optimizing Service, and Managing Risk.” Below are the five themes that came up again and again, and what they mean for shippers planning for the year ahead.
Connect with our attendees:
- Mark Kolde, VP of Logistics Intelligence
- Shawn McCarrick, Chief Executive Officer
- Sean Deorsey, Chief Financial Officer
- Liz Russell, SVP of Client Experience & Operations
- Jeff Juiliano, VP of Engineering
- Dave Horner, Enterprise Sales Development Representative
- Jeremy Lee, VP of Sales
- Eric Swain, Enterprise Logistics Intelligence Manager
- Ryan Agnello, Senior Account Executive
- Pat Hammond, Senior Account Executive
- Hannah Hughes, VP of Marketing
- Peyton Hiscocks, Growth Marketing Manager
1. Carrier Diversification Is Now the Norm
Few sessions spent time debating whether shippers should diversify. The shift is already here: the Big 3 carriers’ share of U.S. parcel volume has dropped from 85% to 61%. As Mark put it during his session, “Diversification has shifted from a shiny-new-toy to a cultural norm amongst shippers.”
The conversation has moved to a harder question: how do you run a multi-carrier network without breaking something?
Alternative Carriers Have Expanded Their Capabilities
Many shippers last evaluated regional and alternative carriers several years ago. Those carriers look different today:
- OnTrac reports 75% U.S. coverage, seven-day delivery, transit about two days faster than the national carriers, and rates averaging about 30% lower. It will accept packages up to 150 lbs. and plans a stronger B2B focus in 2027.
- DHL eCommerce signed a new long-term USPS agreement for stability and continuity and continues to price aggressively in the 1–10 lb. range.
- USPS is investing in Ground Advantage through regional transfer hubs, new sorting equipment, and smart lockers, with returns as its main growth focus.
- Regional players and alternative carriers including GOFO, Jitsu, GLS, Veho, UniUni, and Amazon Shipping all had a presence on the show floor.
Dynamic pricing also surfaced as a trend to watch. OnTrac is preparing an API-based program that offers limited-time rates based on network capacity, a concept UPS and FedEx have also discussed. With labor contract conversations building toward 2028, the opening keynote made the case that diversification will stay near the top of shipper agendas.
A Repeatable Playbook for Adding Carriers
Across sessions, speakers described the same sequence for bringing on new carriers:
- Assess your current carrier exposure
- Find density at the ZIP3 or ZIP5 level, since alternative carriers win in specific pockets that network averages hide
- Model the change, then pilot on a defined slice of volume (peak surcharge windows make a practical test bed)
- Validate results before scaling
- Nordstrom’s case study added an organizational layer. Its procurement and logistics teams operate as one group and measure a combined outcome. When it evaluates the carrier network, the team weighs three factors: customer requirements, internal constraints, and where each carrier performs best.
2. Data Readiness Comes Before Every Carrier Decision
Whether a shipper is adding a regional carrier or preparing for a contract renewal, the advice was consistent: know your data well before the conversation starts. That means modeling every component of your agreement, with a focus on four main levers:
- Discounts
- Dimensional weight (DIM) divisors
- Minimums
- Surcharges
Alternative carriers can strengthen a shipper’s position in contract discussions, but only when the shipper knows its data well enough to bring those carriers in credibly.
Look Past the Published Rate
One rate-forecasting session projected a 5.9% general rate increase (GRI) for 2027 with a $12.71 Ground minimum. Other projections from the same session:
- A 6.34% increase on 1–5 lb. Ground packages
- An 8.29% increase on international services
- The steepest increases on lightweight residential volume
- A possible new tier below the current Additional Handling Surcharge and a potential remote area surcharge for Ground Economy
Mid-cycle increases are also expected to continue. The recurring lesson: the headline GRI rarely matches what a shipper pays. Once minimums and surcharges stack, effective increases often land in the 8–12% range. Planning around your own effective rate gives a far more accurate picture than the published number.
Define Terms Before You Measure
One of the most practical threads at the show was measurement consistency. Does transit time count business days or calendar days? Does the clock start at label creation or the first carrier scan? Is “delivered” the full story? Adding carriers makes these questions harder, because each one may define them differently. Without shared definitions, comparing carrier performance or quantifying savings becomes guesswork.
Visibility gaps also extend to billing. In one session’s survey, 50% of shippers said they never audit their invoices, and only 10% audit more than a few times per year. Limited team bandwidth was the most common reason. Speakers pointed to accessorials as the place hidden costs tend to build, with address corrections, service type selection, and oversize charges as the easiest places to start.
3. The Customer Promise Sets the Standard
Cost and speed still matter, but several sessions framed them as inputs to a larger goal. As the opening analyst panel described it, the standard has moved from meeting a transit time to meeting customer expectations. Nordstrom echoed the point: every decision the team makes ties back to the customer promise.
Those expectations pull in two directions. According to McKinsey, 95% of online consumers prefer free standard shipping over paid expedited shipping. Yet AlixPartners reports that in 2026, consumers will wait only 2.6 days for free shipping.
Shippers are closing that gap without defaulting to faster, more expensive service levels. Common approaches included:
- Service level optimization
- Distribution center optimization
- SKU and inventory placement
- Regional routing
Delivery is also being treated as a brand moment. Panelists encouraged shippers to evaluate carriers on who can be a long-term partner, not only on price and speed. Returns deserve a place in that evaluation too, as carriers invest in locker networks, drop-off locations, and returns-specific pricing.
4. AI Adoption Has Outpaced Understanding
The tone around AI changed noticeably from past years. Earlier questions like “Is it accurate?” and “Can we trust it?” have given way to “How do we apply this across the organization?” and “How do we adopt it at scale?” Roughly one in three shippers now invest in AI for logistics planning and forecasting.
One session grouped shippers into three stages:
- Haven’t started and are now working to catch up
- Using AI in narrow ways and seeing broader potential
- Fully adopted and applying it to transportation
Knowing which stage your team is in helps set realistic next steps.
Still, AI was named in nearly every session and defined in very few. That gap explains much of the hesitation in the room. One panel described AI arithmetic as “an expensive calculator.” Another discussed shippers using general-purpose AI assistants to prepare for contract discussions, with the caution that those tools lack the source material to judge whether a rate is good or bad.
Both points reflect the limits of general-purpose tools. A general assistant doesn’t know your contract terms, your carriers’ surcharge structures, your zone mix, or what an accessorial should cost at your weight bands. AI trained on parcel data and grounded in a shipper’s own profile works from that context. The market has adopted the vocabulary of AI, and the next step is understanding which kind of AI fits the problem.
5. Adoption and Upkeep Decide Whether Technology Delivers
Several sessions made the same point about technology: capability only matters if the team can put it to use. The most advanced tool falls flat if the transportation team can’t apply it in daily work.
This came through most clearly in build-versus-buy discussions. AI tooling makes it easier than ever to build internal reports and workflows. The harder questions come after launch: Who maintains this? What will it cost in time and engineering hours? Carrier rules change mid-contract, and new surcharge tiers appear between GRIs. Whoever builds an internal tool takes on that upkeep for as long as the tool is in use.
Whether you build or buy, the practical test is the same. Evaluate tools on how quickly they get your team to an answer, and be clear about who owns them day to day.
Looking Ahead to 2027
PARCEL Forum 2026 showed an industry in motion. Key takeaways for shippers:
- Diversification is the norm, and execution now depends on ZIP-level analysis and structured pilots
- Clean, consistent data is the starting point for carrier selection and contract planning
- Effective rates, not headline GRIs, should drive 2027 budgets
- Customer expectations are the measure carrier decisions get judged against
- AI value depends on parcel-specific context and a team’s ability to adopt it
With 2027 rate changes approaching, now is the time to model how they will affect your network. SiftedAI gives shippers a normalized view of their parcel data, along with Scenario Modeling tools to test carrier options and contract terms before committing. Explore how SiftedAI can help you prepare for the year ahead.
